US Initial Claims Surge; Manufacturing Data Mixed

Initial claims rose by 53,000 to a level of 898,000 in the October 10 week, well above expectations for a decline to 833,000.

The four-week moving average for initial claims rose by 8,000 to 866,250 in the current week, the first increase after 10 straight declines, the Labor Department reported Thursday, based on state tallies.

Unadjusted claims rose by 76,670 in the current week after an increase of 10,219 in the previous week. Seasonal adjustment factors expected a smaller increase in the current week, leading to the sharp increase in the seasonally adjusted figure.

The state data shows that California’s claims from a few weeks ago is still being used as they ceased processing of new claims for two weeks. When this data is replaced with actual readings, some of which may be impacted by the wildfires, large movements are possible.

The Labor Department reported that 372,891 workers filed under Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance on an unadjusted basis in the current week, down from 463,897 in the previous week

The level of continuing claims fell by 1.165 million to 10.018 million in the October 3 week, maintaining the downward trend.

In other data released Thursday morning, the October Empire State index fell to 10.5 from 17.0 in September, below the 15.0 reading expected.

At the same time, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index report showed a rise to 32.3 from 15.0 in the previous month. Analysts had expected no change in the reading.

Within the data, new orders and shipments were up in both regions, but were mixed movements for employment and the six-month outlook. In every case, though, the reading remained above their breakeven point.

Also released Thursday, the BLS’s import price index rose by 0.3% in September and was up 0.6% excluding a 2.9% drop in fuel prices.

There were price gains for the remainder of the import categories, with the largest increase in foods and feeds.

Even with the September increase, the year/year rate for overall import prices was down 1.1%, Non-fuel imports were up 1.5% year/year.

Prices from China were flat, but prices from Canada rose by 1.2% and prices from Mexico rose by 0.1%.

Kevin Kastner

Julie Ros
Written by

Julie Ros

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