aversion generated by the Brexit vote has seen Scandinavian currencies more
than others coming under pressure along with sterling.
particular, the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona have been hit by the downward
trend. However, market analysts contacted by ...
EBS BrokerTec and Icap Information
Services (IIS) have launched EBS CNH Benchmark, the first fully electronic,
trade-backed reference rate for the offshore Chinese renminbi (CNH) market,
according to Icap.
The benchmark is published daily at 16:30
Beijing/8:30 GMT, and is timed ...
OTC Clearing Hong Kong (OTC Clear) has launched a clearing service for cross-currency swaps (CCS), which will initially focus on swaps in the USD/CNH currency pair.
OTC Clear is the first international clearing house to provide clearing for USD/...
TraderMade’s chief technical analyst, Steve Jarvis, has put out some interesting research looking at USD trading patterns around past presidential elections to see if there is any indication of what to expect in the upcoming one.
Using a USD trade weighted index chart for his analysis rather than specific FX rates, Jarvis looked at how the USD moved during the two months leading up to the previous seven US presidential elections and the two months after.
Going back to 1988, Jarvis highlights who was elected, their defeated opponent, and includes the percentage change for the USD index for the two months before and after the election, as well as the net change over the four-month period.
Today marks the conclusion of an acrimonious US Presidential race, with two candidates promising very different approaches to handling the US economy. As a result, analysts have been furiously mapping out the potential impacts of either result.
If Clinton wins:
Analysts at ING predict that in the case of a Clinton win USD will retrace its pre-election losses and re-couple with Federal Reserve expectations.
“Latest breakout of wage growth from post-crisis range means a Clinton win should see markets (fully) price in a Dec Fed rate hike,” they note.
“Following the US election, global markets have reacted in predictable panic. Equity markets [and] the dollar sold off and gold rallied,” notes Kerim Derhalli, CEO of invstr.
Profit & Loss previously reported on the immediate aftermath of the surprise US election victory for Donald Trump, but the question facing markets now is: what next?
“Key will be now whether or not Trump will prove to be a populist or a pragmatic president,” says Valentijn Nieuwenhuijzen, chief strategist and head of multi-asset at NN Investment Partners.
The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter point today, also indicating that it now expects to increase rates three more times in 2017.
“In view of realised and expected labour market conditions and inflation, the committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to half to three-quarters per cent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labour market conditions and a return to 2% inflation,” says the Federal Open Market Committee in a statement issued today.
Last year the FX market was highly event driven, with periods of sustained low volatility occasionally punctuated by large but episodic market moves.
Looking ahead to 2017 and there are already clearly some events set to take place that have the potential to drive further bursts of volatility, namely the invocation of Article 50 by Britain to begin its exit from the European Union and the scheduled political elections in France, Holland and Germany.
In addition, the change of policy direction expected under US Presidential-elect, Donald Trump, and the US Federal Reserve’s indication at the end of 2016 that it currently plans to raise rates three times this year are expected to be major drivers of the currency markets in the coming year.
When assessing which large tail risk events are likely to take place in 2017, speakers at Profit & Loss’ Forex Network London emphasised that there are other risk factors being overlooked that might have a greater impact on financial markets.
“Like last year, the tail risks this year are quite high compared to normal,” said Colin Harte, strategist and senior portfolio manger at BNP Paribas Investment Partners. “There are some quite material risks that – if they come to pass – could have a significant impact on markets.”
He noted, however, that many of the expected tail risk events from 2016 were less dramatic than expected in the end: sterling took an obvious hit after the Brexit result, but soon became range-bound again, while the Trump election victory actually led to a rally in the equity markets.
Data from CLS shows that the first round of the French presidential election caused a much stronger reaction in the spot FX market than the second round.
The data shows that there was a significant spike in volumes following the first round of voting. Ahead of the vote, polls were showing a statistical tie for the top four candidates, and therefore the result was much more uncertain.
Before polling was suspended by law on Friday, 21 April 2017, Bloomberg’s composite of French polls showed Emmanuel Macron in the lead with 24.5 % and Marine Le Pen in second place with 22.5% of the vote
Galen Stops looks at the drivers behind the appreciation of the Mexican peso and asks whether the rally can continue.
Few, if any, saw this coming.
After Donald Trump won the US presidential race in November 2016, USD/MXN went from 18.03 up to 20.89, and by the time of his inauguration in January 2017, the exchange rate was up to 21.58.
This depreciation of the peso seemed eminently reasonable at the time, given that on the campaign trail Trump had promised to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) in America’s favour or terminate the agreement altogether, not to mention building a border wall between the US and Mexico at the latter’s expense.