Articles tagged by sterling
I don’t think there is anyone out there who
doesn’t think the FX market performed well under the stress of the surprise
outcome from the UK referendum last week, but I suspect the real test is only
The Bank of England (BoE) is expecting that
some “monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer” as the
“economic outlook has deteriorated” on the back of the UK voting to leave the
EU, the BoE governor Mark ...
With the dust having
settled somewhat following the UK’s historical referendum decision to leave the
European Union, there are some clear winners and – unfortunately – some losers
emerging in the aftermath.
It should be noted
that this list is by ...
thirds of small businesses in the UK are exposed to currency risks following
the Brexit vote, according to East & Partners, a banking market research
and analysis firm.
The firms’ research
shows that in the first half of 2016 all “...
The depreciation of
sterling since the Brexit vote could increase pressure on UK corporate ratings,
with UK retailers and airlines particularly exposed, says ratings agency,
Although Fitch says
that the falling value of the pound is unlikely to spur ...
In a surprise move the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy
Committee overwhelmingly voted to maintain bank rates at 0.5% Thursday,
although it said it expects to take some stimulus measures in August.
At its meeting ending July 13, the MPC voted ...
A senior member of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has called for a “thorough and unbiased analysis” by global financial regulators of the systemic risk of “unprecedented capital constraining regulations on global financial and risk-transfer markets”.
In a statement issued today, CFTC commissioner Christopher Giancarlo repeats his warning over liquidity risk in financial markets, noting, “The increased risk is in part due to untested bank capital constraints imposed by US and overseas bank regulators under the Dodd-Frank Act and similar laws.”
Thomson Reuters says its sterling volumes trebled on October 7, the day of the Cable flash crash which saw the pair drop from above 1.25 to below 1.15 before recovering to 1.24.
The company does not break down its volume data by product or currency on a daily basis and provides no further details, however this would appear to be further evidence of the phenomenon in FX markets whereby dealers typically head to the major matching venues of EBS Market and Thomson Reuters Matching when markets get hectic.
On October 7, Cable flash crashed in early Asian trading, leading to chaos in the market and an official investigation into events surrounding the move. Colin Lambert takes a look at what happened.
A few minutes into October 7 UK time, at 12.07.03am to where there are grounds to believe that the transaction is be precise, Cable traded through 1.2600 having fallen 30 points in the previous minute. Just 23 seconds later it traded below 1.2200 and 45 seconds later it had traded at 1.1378 on one platform.
Just two minutes later the market was trading back above 1.2100 and just 10 minutes after the initial move, Cable was trading above 1.2400. The market had “flash crashed”.
Sterling jumped almost 100 pips today after the British High Court ruled that the UK parliament must vote on Brexit before it is formally triggered by Article 50.
The government is expected to appeal the court’s decision, but in the meantime, sterling rose from 1.2335 at 10am UK time to peak at 1.2494 by 1:15pm, its strongest since the October 7 flash crash.
The other big news in the UK today was that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.25%.
In a move that might be seen as a little late, the National Futures Association (NFA) has instructed FX brokers to raise their margin requirements for clients trading sterling.
Under NFA rules the 10 most traded currencies have be subject to a 2% margin on the notional value of outstanding contracts, while currencies outside of that group have had a 5% requirement.
Noting that its rules allow the NFA to change margin requirements “under extraordinary market conditions”, the regulator says, “Given the recent events involving the UK exiting the European Union (Brexit) the executive committee has determined to increase the minimum security deposits required to be collected and maintained by FDMs [forex dealer members] under Section 12 for currency pairs involving the British pound to a minimum of 5%. This increase is effective as of 5 p.m. (CST) on November 7, 2016 and remains in effect until further notice.”
The UK Supreme Court has decided, by a majority verdict, that the UK’s parliament must approve the government’s decision to trigger Article 50, which formally starts the process for Britain to exit the European Union.
Although the decision was largely expected, sterling rose briefly to 1.2540 before dipping sharply as the details emerged – specifically that the government did not have to consult the regional assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – dropping from the 1.2540 level to 1.2440 before recovering to 1.2490.
Chris Salmon, executive director, markets, at the Bank of England (BoE), said in a speech today that, while he has confidence in the ability of the FX market to process identifiable risks, he expects to see more surprise flash moves in this asset class.
Speaking at the OMFIF City Lecture in London, Salmon looked at the depreciation of sterling following the UK Brexit referendum result and the sterling “flash crash” that took place on October 7, 2016, to provide insight into how the market is functioning.
Following the sterling flash crash last year there has been much industry debate about what the increasingly regularity and severity of these events means for FX market participants and whether anything can be done to prevent or mitigate their impact in the future.
According to Neil Crammond, risk manager for FX at Avem Capital, part of the reason why these flash events are occurring is simply that markets aren’t used to the levels of volatility that used to exist prior to the financial crisis and the implementation of quantitative easing by a number of central banks.
“I think that the problem with the modern FX market is that pre-2008 if you came in every day and someone said to you that “we’re going to have a 300 tick move in the cable every day”, you’d trade according to that,” he says.
The outcome of the UK General Election has become less certain as the campaign has progressed, posing questions around the impact of an unexpected result. Some investors are speculating about how this will affect the pound and, of course, Brexit negotiations. Michael Gowland, global head of treasury at Earthport FX, provides an outline of some of the possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: Conservative win
The market has largely priced in this outcome and therefore, we expect this result to have a neutral to slightly negative impact on sterling going forward. The Conservative pledge of a “balanced budget by 2025”, which roughly translates as tighter fiscal policy, may have a medium-term impact on sterling, although the current upward trend we see on technical charts should not be discounted – and at this stage, we would refrain from being overly negative.
Sterling has dropped sharply in early Asian trading as exit polls from the UK election indicates the ruling Conservative government will win the most seats but will fall short of a majority.
An exit poll for BBC News, ITN News and Sky News indicates the Conservatives wining 314 seats, Labour 266, Scottish National Party 34, Liberal Democrats 14 and local parties (including the Greens) winning 22.
Cable has fallen from 1.2950 to 1.2710, EUR/GBP rose strongly to 0.8820 from 0.8657 and GBP/JPY fell from 142.50 to 139.75. Cable has bounced to 1.2760 and EUR/GBP is back below 0.8800,
After an initial 1.7% drop when the exit poll was released in the UK predicting a surprise hung parliament after the UK general election, FX markets have stabilised with Cable ranging around 1.2750 and EUR/GBP around 0.8780.
Market sources say volumes have dropped from the earlier high levels as uncertainty over the outcome reigned, however the market appears to have come to terms with a minority government. BBC predicts the Conservatives will win 318 seats, with Labour in second place on 262 and analysts at the broadcaster say there is “no way” that a hung parliament can be avoided.
CLS and Thomson Reuters (TR) have released data charting the spike in GBP trading following the UK’s recent general election.The exit poll at 22:00 produced a surprise outcome with the Conservative party expected to win just 314 seats, far less
The exit poll at 22:00 produced a surprise outcome with the Conservative party expected to win just 314 seats, far less than previous polls and 12 seats short of an overall majority.
The data from CLS shows that this resulted in an elevated trading activity in GBP/USD at 22:00. As results were being announced during the night, the unexpected exit poll was becoming more credible and GBP/USD volumes remained much higher than the 2016 average.
The value of sterling slid today as Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, indicated that there would be no immediate adjustment of monetary policy by the central bank.
In a speech delivered at Mansion House in London, Carney declared that “now is not yet the time to begin” monetary adjustment, ruling out the possibility of an interest rate hike.
GBP/USD promptly dropped from 1.2753 at 8am BST to 1.2631 just before 3pm BST in response to Carney’s comments. “Since the prospect of Brexit emerged, financial markets, notably sterling, have marked down the UK’s economic prospects.
Closer scrutiny of the data associated with the sterling flash crash reveals some surprising results, argues Paul Aston, CEO of Tixall Global Advisors.
Speaking after delivering a presentation at Profit & Loss’ Forex Network New York conference, Aston explains that his firm replicated the environment of the FX market during the sterling flash crash on a simulator.
“In the course of doing that you have to get very close to the data, analyse every tick, and what we discovered was it really wasn’t the headline grabbing price movement that we saw in the flash crash, where you’re printing all the way down to 1.13 handles, it was right before that which was the most surprising bit of data,” he says.
A new research report from Deutsche Bank highlights a change in the perception of sterling across the three major FX market time zones following last year’s vote to leave the European Union. The article, How Brexit changed how sterling is traded across the world is written by Deutsche Bank analysts Oliver Harvey and Rohini Grover, and it uses intra-day seasonality as the basis for its study. Previous work by the authors had found “strong evidence” of investment biases in the different time zones.
The notoriety of me busting a Saturday Night Fever move on stage at Profit & Loss Stockholm last week is growing, therefore I will subtly(!) shift the direction of the conversation – but retain its musicality – by noting that I don't remember “Ebeneezer Goode” by The Shamen being a number one single in the UK. Equally I don’t think I have ever listened to “Tubular Bells II” by Mike Oldfield. I was, however, very busy the week both hit the top of the charts.
A new Staff Working Paper published by the Bank of England supports the assertion made in the original investigation by the Bank for International Settlements’ (BIS) that the October 2016 sterling flash crash may have been exacerbated by the temporary suspension of trading on CME’s sterling FX futures.
The report also uses a new methodology to measure liquidity during the event and while it concludes that the market behaved as expected during the first few seconds, thereafter the speed of the move, “goes beyond that consistent with our estimates of the likely impact on prices given the quantity of orders to sell sterling”.
I know I have floated ideas around this issue before, but do we need to do more about that hour after the New York close than just talk about it? Flash events are starting to occur a little too frequently in FX markets for some peoples’ liking, so what can we do about it? Actually I think we can do quite a lot – or at least it would be a lot if all the noise around data capabilities isn’t just that – noise.
This column comes with a warning as I am getting increasingly grumpy with attitudes to FX market price action. You clearly can't please everyone, but how can someone complain - as they did to me this week - that what we have seen in sterling this week was "the wrong kind of volatility"? Luckily I have this column to let off steam so let's do that - with a take down of the model that has turned FX traders into glorified brokers.