The biggest issue facing the Russian ruble in 2017 is the price of oil, according to a Bloomberg survey of FX executives released today.
Of those polled, the majority (or 51%), say oil prices will have the biggest effect on the currency, with 83% of the executives saying that they feel that the ruble will be more correlated to oil than emerging markets currencies this year.
Of less concern in relation to the ruble were Russian Central Bank policies and geopolitics, which only 22% said they were concerned about, and just 5% of respondents said that they are concerned about US interest rate hikes.
Moscow Exchange (Moex) is now offering instruments to trade at the Moex FX USD/RUB and EUR/RUB fixing prices with clearing and settlement via its clearinghouse, NCC Clearing Bank.
The new offering aims to provide Russian and international banks with a hedge against the currency risk of OTC trading in rouble NDF with the net return calculated at maturity as the difference between the forward rate and the Moex fixing rate.
The fixing instruments, USDRUB_FIX0 and EURRUB_FIX0, are traded from 10:00-12:15 MSK on days when the Moex USD/RUB FX Fixing and Moex EUR/RUB FX Fixing (Т+0) are computed.
Greater automation in emerging markets is widely seen to be merely a matter of time. Profit & Loss talks to Darryl Hooker, former co-head of EBS Brokertec Market and currently consultant at Capitolis about his experience in helping bring a larger ‘e’ focus to Russia and China.
Profit & Loss: Can you give us an insight into the thinking that saw you focus on first Russian markets and then China when you were at EBS? What are the main signals that identify a frontier market ready to move into the mainstream of EM?
Darryl Hooker: A common pitfall in emerging markets is to make the mistake of considering them collectively despite the fact that they have very particular and specific nuances.