Birgir Haraldsson and Mario Manna, co-founders of Nightberg, an independent macro strategy firm, talk to Profit & Loss about getting noticed in a crowded market and how data analytics is changing the traditional research model.
Profit & Loss: given your experience in the market, how have you seen financial research change over the years?
Mario Manna: Spending a lot of time on the buy side we’ve always been big users of research and it has changed quite a bit, in particular it’s become more siloed. So now you often have specialists carved out to cover a specific niche, firms have a US rates strategist, an EU rates strategist, etc, and so the research becomes narrowly focused and at risk of constantly reporting about a topic or asset when perhaps nothing much is happening.
GTX and Nightberg, an independent macro strategy firm founded by former hedge fund strategists, are partnering to distribute Nightberg’s full suite of investment research to GTX's institutional clients.
The product will be provided on a complimentary basis to clients of GTX’s registered swap dealer, which offers agency execution services for swaps, options, forwards, non-deliverable forwards and other products in G10 and emerging market currencies.
“We are excited to work with GTX to provide flexible access to our investment research,” says Mario Manna, co-founder of Nightberg. “Both Nightberg and GTX are active in the global macro hedge fund and broader asset manager space and we see an excellent opportunity to work together to provide value to clients.”
Last year the FX market was highly event driven, with periods of sustained low volatility occasionally punctuated by large but episodic market moves.
Looking ahead to 2017 and there are already clearly some events set to take place that have the potential to drive further bursts of volatility, namely the invocation of Article 50 by Britain to begin its exit from the European Union and the scheduled political elections in France, Holland and Germany.
In addition, the change of policy direction expected under US Presidential-elect, Donald Trump, and the US Federal Reserve’s indication at the end of 2016 that it currently plans to raise rates three times this year are expected to be major drivers of the currency markets in the coming year.
Galen Stops looks at why CTA strategies struggled in 2016, examines why there is enthusiasm from these managers bubbling up for 2017 and looks at the trends that are shaping the managed futures industry.
2016 wasn’t exactly a vintage year for CTAs. The SocGen Prime Services SG CTA Index ended the year in negative territory for the first time since 2012, showing returns of -2.89%. Likewise, the BarclayHedge CTA Index was -1.14% for the year. One explanation for why these firms struggled was the continued low interest rate environment, which has kept bond prices low and helped drive up the stock market.