Independent analysis firm InTouch FX recently surveyed is clients on expectations around the impending US election in November, finding that expectations for a Joe Biden win are not yet priced in and that the dollar may have further to fall. “The US election is not expected to break the broader dollar downtrend,” says Todd Elmer, […]
Tag: US election
A survey conducted by Standard Chartered Bank, both internally and among its client base, finds that a “small” Democratic House win is “well priced in” to markets ahead of the poll next month.
“A Democratic win was associated with weaker equities, lower bond yields and weaker DXY, with a stronger Democratic win exacerbating the moves,” the bank says in a release detailing the results. “A Republican win was associated with stronger equities, higher bond yields and a somewhat stronger DXY.”
Inaugural financial markets research from the JP Morgan Chase Institute studies trading behaviour around three major market events, and while the findings will not come as a surprise to most FX market participants – active traders were much more involved in the market than passive investors or corporate hedgers – they should prove useful to central banks as they come to terms with a changing market structure.
The research, FX Markets Move on Surprise News, was written by Diana Farrell, Kanav Bhagat and Chen Zhao at the Institute and looks at three specific surprise events, the Swiss National Bank’s decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor in January 2015, the Brexit vote in June 2016 and the 2016 US presidential election.
Comments made Sunday by US president-elect Donald Trump on Twitter have sparked fresh speculation as to whether his administration will label China a currency manipulator once he is in office.
China lodged a formal complaint to the US government after it emerged that Trump held a phone call with the President of Taiwan on Friday, in breach of decades of diplomatic protocol.
“I can tell you that the Chinese side has lodged solemn representations with the relevant party on the US side both in Beijing and Washington. China has got its message across to the world as a whole with regard to Taiwan-related issues. The US side, president-elect Trump’s team included, is also fully aware of China’s solemn attitude on the issue,” said the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lu Kang, in a press conference today.
Matt Kulkin, a partner at Steptoe and Johnson, explains to Profit & Loss deputy editor, Galen Stops, why a “copy and paste” approach to regulation won’t work for FX.
FX is often referred to as an “unregulated” or “self-regulated” market, and yet in recent years bans have been fined billions of dollars by regulators for alleged infractions in this market, while criminal charges are being brought against FX traders in the US courts.
Kulkin explains this disparity by pointing out that the entities involved this market are regulated and therefore subject to oversight by a various national authorities. However, unlike the securities markets or the OTC derivatives markets, there aren’t concrete regulations regarding the market place, he says.
Donald Trump’s position on the currency manipulation provisions in US trade deals could lead him into direct conflict with US Treasury once he assumes the presidency, according Dick Cunningham, a senior international trade partner at Steptoe & Johnson’s Washington office.
Speaking on a webinar examining some of the implications of this week’s US presidential election, Cunningham noted that Trump has vowed to kill the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
One reason why Trump has criticised the TTIP in the past, said Cunningham, was because although it contains a currency manipulation provision, the provision is not enforceable.
With the immediate market risk of the US elections having diminished, Saxo Bank has returned its margin requirements to normal levels, with the exception of GBP pairs.
Saxo raised margin requirements ahead of the US election to try and ensure that its clients were appropriately leveraged going into what it expected could be a significant market event.
It raised the requirements on most major FX pairs up to 2%-3%, with MXN and RUB going to 15% and 10%, respectively. Claus Nielsen, head of markets at Saxo, comments:
Putting aside all jokes about the UK’s disappointment at losing their “dumbest electorate crown”, I’ll keep this brief because the world is still coming to terms with how the “experts” once again got it hopelessly wrong. So just to say yes, the FX market was very orderly yesterday as the results came in but (there’s always a ‘but’ remember), we are in no way out of the woods. For just as this was a eerie echo of Brexit, so too could market behaviour be in the coming months.
As FX markets continue to anticipate what will happen next following Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the US Presidential election, there could also be significant changes in the country’s regulatory landscape that financial services firms need to consider.
For starters, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) could look very different.
Historically, when there’s a transition of parties, the Chairman of the Commission has tendered their resignation on the inauguration day of the new President and then the remaining Commissioners vote amongst themselves for an acting chairman.
“Following the US election, global markets have reacted in predictable panic. Equity markets [and] the dollar sold off and gold rallied,” notes Kerim Derhalli, CEO of invstr.
Profit & Loss previously reported on the immediate aftermath of the surprise US election victory for Donald Trump, but the question facing markets now is: what next?
“Key will be now whether or not Trump will prove to be a populist or a pragmatic president,” says Valentijn Nieuwenhuijzen, chief strategist and head of multi-asset at NN Investment Partners.