The US Treasury has determined that China should no longer be designated as a currency manipulator. In a new report, Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States, the Treasury cites economic reforms and commitments from China to refrain from devaluing the renminbi (RMB) as the reasons for this decision. […]
On first glance there appeared to be few significant changes of note when looking at the currency-specific data in the latest BIS survey. But scratch beneath the surface and this data asks some important questions, says Galen Stops. Looking at the data regarding the currencies themselves in the latest OTC FX turnover survey from the […]
Brexit uncertainty hasn’t stopped RMB trading activity in the UK reaching record highs, according to a new report published by the City of London Corporation. The report, London RMB Business Quarterly, shows that an average of £85 billion of RMB was traded in the UK on a daily basis in the second quarter of 2019, […]
This week’s In the FICC of It podcast is an emotional rollercoaster, containing euphoria, resignations and emotional pleas for clemency as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops discuss key themes from the last two conferences of the year at Profit & Loss, in Singapore and Hong Kong. Reflecting upon some really interesting (and different) perspectives on […]
A new report from Vontobel and Eurasia Group suggests that there could be an erosion of the US dollar’s reserve currency status as geopolitical tensions between America and China continue. The paper, titled The Next Digital Superpower: Scenarios for the US-China conflict and implications for the global economy, argues that the current US-China trade war […]
In a 1999 edition of Profit & Loss, David Clark, now chairman of the European Venues and Intermediaries Association (EVIA), reflected on 30 years in the foreign exchange industry. Now he talks about what has – and hasn’t – changed in the industry since then and makes some bold predictions for the future. Profit & […]
Scepticism abounds in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops take a look at the latest bank to unveil a digital markets strategy – including all your favourite buzzwords. While Stops believes this is the latest move in what will be a growing trend, our podcasters also wonder whether it’s not really just a rebranding exercise?
They then move into more traditional areas and discuss JP Morgan’s survey on FX market conditions, and while they agree with a lot of the findings, there are one or two areas that raise an eyebrow, not least around internalisation and AI.
AI-generated trading and liquidity are also the forefront as they move on to share their thoughts around the flash crash in Jardine Matheson stock last week in Singapore, including asking the question, what does it mean for market maker programmes and certain order types?
The discussion then moves on to look at the latest FX turnover surveys from the world’s FX committees, with particular attention on three interesting/puzzling (delete as appropriate) elements of the UK report surrounding RMB, NDFs and voice brokers.
The podcast ends on with Lambert praising “the optimism of youth” after Stops highlights what he thinks could be a very important line at the end of the latest document detailing an FX-related fine in the US – in other words, the cynic in him won the day!
Chinese RMB-denominated government and policy bank securities are set to be added to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.The inclusion in the index will start in April 2019 and be phased in over a 20 month period.When fully accounted for in the Global Aggregate Index, local currency Chinese bonds will be the fourth largest currency component following the USD, EUR and JPY. Using data as of January 24, 2019 the index would include 363 Chinese securities and represent 6.03% of a $54.07 trillion index upon completion of the phase-in
Aside from what one news service decided was the headline – more like click bait – “FX Volumes Slump Globally” (guess what, yes, there was a dip from April, but on a more considered year-on-year basis FX turnover is up 8.9% at the third highest mark ever), there were actually a few interesting snippets in this week’s FX committee surveys. The two that stood out for me were the surge in RMB trading and a quite remarkable resurgence for the voice brokers in the UK.
There’s something for everyone in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops traverse the US legal system, trading, crypto and China.
Listen in as Lambert explains why he is mystified at the prosecution’s flip-flop in the Mark Johnson case and angry at the FX industry’s previous lack of effort to explain how markets work to the US legal authorities; and Stops takes a look at a new report n his favourite industry – CTAs. Having had the data explained to him, Lambert also thinks he knows why some CTA sectors are doing well and some aren’t, so that’s another of his “theories” then…
Our podcasters then move onto debate whether crypto markets will evolve to an OTC model and whether this would be a good thing for attracting institutional money to what is still a relatively nascent market.
Stops closes out by reporting from an analysts’ briefing this week that highlighted a change in approach on the part of China to its programme of liberalisation of the yuan.