In a 1999 edition of Profit & Loss, David Clark, now chairman of the European Venues and Intermediaries Association (EVIA), reflected on 30 years in the foreign exchange industry. Now he talks about what has – and hasn’t – changed in the industry since then and makes some bold predictions for the future. Profit & […]
Scepticism abounds in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops take a look at the latest bank to unveil a digital markets strategy – including all your favourite buzzwords. While Stops believes this is the latest move in what will be a growing trend, our podcasters also wonder whether it’s not really just a rebranding exercise?
They then move into more traditional areas and discuss JP Morgan’s survey on FX market conditions, and while they agree with a lot of the findings, there are one or two areas that raise an eyebrow, not least around internalisation and AI.
AI-generated trading and liquidity are also the forefront as they move on to share their thoughts around the flash crash in Jardine Matheson stock last week in Singapore, including asking the question, what does it mean for market maker programmes and certain order types?
The discussion then moves on to look at the latest FX turnover surveys from the world’s FX committees, with particular attention on three interesting/puzzling (delete as appropriate) elements of the UK report surrounding RMB, NDFs and voice brokers.
The podcast ends on with Lambert praising “the optimism of youth” after Stops highlights what he thinks could be a very important line at the end of the latest document detailing an FX-related fine in the US – in other words, the cynic in him won the day!
Chinese RMB-denominated government and policy bank securities are set to be added to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.The inclusion in the index will start in April 2019 and be phased in over a 20 month period.When fully accounted for in the Global Aggregate Index, local currency Chinese bonds will be the fourth largest currency component following the USD, EUR and JPY. Using data as of January 24, 2019 the index would include 363 Chinese securities and represent 6.03% of a $54.07 trillion index upon completion of the phase-in
Aside from what one news service decided was the headline – more like click bait – “FX Volumes Slump Globally” (guess what, yes, there was a dip from April, but on a more considered year-on-year basis FX turnover is up 8.9% at the third highest mark ever), there were actually a few interesting snippets in this week’s FX committee surveys. The two that stood out for me were the surge in RMB trading and a quite remarkable resurgence for the voice brokers in the UK.
There’s something for everyone in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops traverse the US legal system, trading, crypto and China.
Listen in as Lambert explains why he is mystified at the prosecution’s flip-flop in the Mark Johnson case and angry at the FX industry’s previous lack of effort to explain how markets work to the US legal authorities; and Stops takes a look at a new report n his favourite industry – CTAs. Having had the data explained to him, Lambert also thinks he knows why some CTA sectors are doing well and some aren’t, so that’s another of his “theories” then…
Our podcasters then move onto debate whether crypto markets will evolve to an OTC model and whether this would be a good thing for attracting institutional money to what is still a relatively nascent market.
Stops closes out by reporting from an analysts’ briefing this week that highlighted a change in approach on the part of China to its programme of liberalisation of the yuan.
Traiana is now providing direct central clearing connectivity to the Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing’s (HKEX) OTC Clearing Hong Kong (OTC Clear).Market participants can now access HKEX’s OTC Clear service to clear USD/CNH and USD/HKD FX forward and swaps, via Traiana’s Clearing Hub (CCP Connect), which provides affirmation, matching and trade processing.The OTC Clear deliverable FX service can be used to mitigate settlement risk that arises when payments and receipts of currencies occur at different intervals during a standard bilateral settlement process. The service can also be used to offset settlement exposure with its clearing house cross currency swaps service.
China has fundamentally changed its approach towards RMB internationalisation, according to BNP Paribas China’s chief China economist, XD Chen.Speaking at a briefing in New York today, Chen explained that for the past five years the authorities in China had one main policy stance regarding the renminbi: to promote the internationalisation of the currency.However, he then added: “But now this policy stance, in our observation and together with our policy consultation, is no longer. In other words, they’re not going to use the government’s force to promote renminbi internationalisation, instead they will follow market forces.”
Greater automation in emerging markets is widely seen to be merely a matter of time. Profit & Loss talks to Darryl Hooker, former co-head of EBS Brokertec Market and currently consultant at Capitolis about his experience in helping bring a larger ‘e’ focus to Russia and China.
Profit & Loss: Can you give us an insight into the thinking that saw you focus on first Russian markets and then China when you were at EBS? What are the main signals that identify a frontier market ready to move into the mainstream of EM?
Darryl Hooker: A common pitfall in emerging markets is to make the mistake of considering them collectively despite the fact that they have very particular and specific nuances.
The total volume of FX futures traded on SGX in July was 1.7 million, down 8% month-on-month, despite the exchange seeing record volumes in its USD/CNH futures.
Although volumes were down last month compared to June, they were still up 124% year-on-year. The monthly decrease appears to have been driven by a decline in volumes on SGX’s INR/USD futures, with trading down 23% m-o-m but still up 81% y-o-y.
The bright spot for SGX in July was trading on its USD/CNH futures, as a record $61.5 billion in notional was traded on these contracts, bringing the total volume of these contracts cleared to over $255 billion this year.
Profit & Loss understands that Darryl Hooker, global head of metals and spot and head of FX EMEA at NEX Markets is leaving the firm.
Hooker, who has been with the firm for 18 years having joined its predecessor Icap in 2000, is believed to be leaving this week.
Hooker was co-head of EBS Brokertec Markets before the rebranding to NEX, having also served in a variety of roles including global head of new and emerging markets. During the latter he helped drive the project to establish EBS as the prime ECN for Chinese renmimbi business.