Tag: JPY

JPY

Flash Crash or the New Norm? Deciphering January 3

The foreign exchange industry got an early reminder of risk when on the second full day of trading this year the market saw another flash event. What, if anything, does this mean for FX market liquidity and volatility in the year ahead though? Colin Lambert finds out.The very sharp moves seen in FX markets at the start of the year triggered yet another round of introspection over conditions in the FX market with commentators pointing the finger of blame at one or more of algos, news from Apple, thin markets, Japanese retail and poor execution. Although Profit & Loss understands that industry players have been approached for data logs by certain regulators, the chances of an investigation turning up a convincing catalyst for the moves are thin.

Flash Crash or the New Norm? Deciphering January 3

The foreign exchange industry got an early reminder of risk when on the second full day of trading this year the market saw another flash event. What, if anything, does this mean for FX market liquidity and volatility in the year ahead though? Colin Lambert finds out.The very sharp moves seen in FX markets at the start of the year triggered yet another round of introspection over conditions in the FX market with commentators pointing the finger of blame at one or more of algos, news from Apple, thin markets, Japanese retail and poor execution. Although Profit & Loss understands that industry players have been approached for data logs by certain regulators, the chances of an investigation turning up a convincing catalyst for the moves are thin.

FX Options Skews: A Complicated Story

A new research note from CME Group looks at whether FX options skews can be used to predict where certain currencies will move relative to the US dollar.Written by Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME, the research opens by explaining that options markets typically exhibit a skew, but that in different asset classes this skew can be in different directions.For example, Norland points out that out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on equity index futures are usually more expensive than OTM call options because investors fear a sudden decline in stock prices more than a sudden rise. However, the reverse is generally true for options on agriculture products because food buyers are more concerned with a sudden increase in the price of crops rather than a decline.

In the FICC of it

In this week’s podcast Colin Lambert and Galen Stops tackle two big stories in the FX market: the recent flash crash in the Asia markets and the changes at Citi’s FX prime brokerage (FXPB) business.Both Lambert and Stops express skepticism that the news regarding Apple’s profits in China was the cause of the flash crash, although the former is equally unsure about an alternative theory put forward by the latter to explain the price moves. Both agree though that the event was symptomatic of changes in the nature of liquidity in the FX market, and note a disparity between what many market participants will say in private and in public on this matter.

CLS Adds Japanese Funds to Settlement Service

CLS has announced today that the first Japanese-domiciled funds have access to CLSSettlement as third-party clients.

Asset manager Fidelity International and The Master Trust Bank of Japan  (MTBJ), a trust bank exclusively engaged in asset management, have the first Japanese-domiciled funds to settle FX transactions in CLSSettlement. CLS says that this marks the start of a coordinated industry-wide effort to onboard the Japanese buy-side community to its settlement service over the next few years.

Fidelity International and MTBJ are being supported by Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), which acts as MTBJ’s custodian for non-Japanese securities and related currency movements outside of Japan. BBH has made its third-party access to CLSSettlement available to facilitate MTBJ’s settlement of FX transactions.

Nex Launches Yen Benchmark

Nex Data, a Nex Group business which delivers independent market intelligence and price information for OTC data and Nex Markets, a NEX Group business which provides electronic trading technology and services, have launched the EBS JPY Benchmark, which it claims is the first fully electronic, transaction-backed reference rate for the Japanese yen.
Nex says the creation of the reference rate for JPY seeks to provide high standards across the market.Reflecting the USD/JPY rate, the new benchmark is published daily at 15:00 Tokyo time.

Exploring Correlations Between the Yen and Nikkei

SGX has released an article looking at whether the long-standing assumption that the Japanese yen is inversely correlated with Japanese equity indices, and what this means against the current geopolitical outlook.

Conventional wisdom maintains that that a weakening yen leads to stock gains, with benchmarks such as the Nikkei 225 and the Topix Index strengthening as a result.

According to the data presented by SGX, although the correlation between the Nikkei 225 Index and the Japanese yen fluctuates daily, historical evidence over the past four years shows that the inverse correlation theory holds true most of the time.

Fed Raises Rates, USD Surges in Response

The US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by a quarter point today, also indicating that it now expects to increase rates three more times in 2017.

“In view of realised and expected labour market conditions and inflation, the committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to half to three-quarters per cent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labour market conditions and a return to 2% inflation,” says the Federal Open Market Committee in a statement issued today.

NFA Shifts FX Margins

The US National Futures Association (NFA) has raised margin requirements on three currencies whilst cutting the margin required on one. The changes apply to NFA registered Forex Dealer Members (FDMs) in the US.
The NFA cites recent volatility in the currency markets as well as the margin increases implemented by exchanges CME and ICE with respect to foreign currency futures involving the Mexican peso, Japanese yen, and New Zealand dollar, in notifying members to raise margins on those three currencies.