A new research report from JP Morgan Chase Institute highlights the impact of central bank communication choices on financial market volatility.In the report, Does the Timing of Central Bank Announcements Matter?, the authors analysed data around the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) decision to remove the EUR/CHF floor in January 2015, and found evidence that the timing of the decision increased subsequent market volatility.This latest research builds on a previous paper released by JP Morgan in June 2018, in which it found evidence that many hedge funds had predicated trading strategies on the belief that the SNB would maintain the EUR/CHF floor at 1.20.
Tag: hedge funds
Hedge Funds gave up 3.06% in October according to the Barclay Hedge Fund Index compiled by BarclayHedge, versus a 6.84% decrease in the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Year to date, the Barclay Hedge Fund Index is down 1.90%, while the S&P has gained 3.01%.
Overall, 16 of Barclay’s 17 hedge fund indices had losses in October, while only one index had a gain.
The Barclay Fund of Funds Index gave up 2.69% in October, and has moved into negative territory with a 2.34% loss for the year.
The flash estimate for the Barclay CTA Index, compiled by BarclayHedge, indicates a 0.19% loss in September. However, currency trading remains the best performing sector this year.
“The US economy continues to strengthen in spite of pervasive trade war fears and continued Fed monetary tightening, while other countries have chosen to keep their rates low,” says Sol Waksman, founder and president of BarclayHedge.
He adds: “These contradictory monetary policies have created unpredictable crosscurrents and trend changes in futures prices.”
Eight of Barclay’s managed futures indices had losses in September, while only one had a gain.
Hedge Funds slipped 0.02% in September according to the Barclay Hedge Fund Index compiled by BarclayHedge, versus a 0.57% increase in the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Year to date, the Barclay Hedge Fund Index is up 1.25%, while the S&P has gained 10.57%.
“In spite of interest rates reaching multi-year highs, US equities were able to squeak out a modest profit,” says Sol Waksman, founder and president of BarclayHedge. “However, hedge fund returns were mixed. Winners and losers were evenly split.”
It’s a bumper edition of In the FICC of it this week as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops prepare to head off to Forex Network Chicago 2018, with both giving previews of the main issues that they plan to tackle on the panel sessions that they are moderating.
The pair also discuss a report by the New York state Attorney General, which highlighted some major concerns about some of the crypto trading venues operating today. But the most interesting aspect of this story is the response of one exchange that decided to hit back at the AG in rather spectacular fashion – Lambert and Stops highlight some of the shots fired on (where else?) Twitter.
There is a new breed of hedge funds that are using artificial intelligence (AI) tools to trade the currency markets. Galen Stops takes a look at a few of these emerging funds.
“AI has become a catch-all phrase, everybody and their grandma wants to use it now because it’s a buzzword,” says Damien Loh, the CIO at Ensemble Capital, a Singapore-based hedge fund.
With an academic background in computer science, Loh spent 15 years at JP Morgan before launching Ensemble Capital in 2017 alongside Atsuo Ogaki, the former head of FX at Nomura in Tokyo and 22-year veteran of JP Morgan.
This week’s podcast roars through a huge range of subjects and features Colin Lambert lamenting the demise of “crazy” hedge funds and Galen Stops questioning how much value there really is in the swathe of market data products coming to the market.
Our two podcasters also take a look at TCA and ask, “does it really add value?” They delve deeper into the real challenges facing corporate treasuries (hint: it’s not execution) and the value, or otherwise, of them using currency overlay programmes; roll through the FX Global Code and into the end of the class action against Deutsche Bank over last look; and end up with exciting news for listeners attending Forex Network Chicago.
Hedge Funds reported a gain of 0.42% in August according to the Barclay Hedge Fund Index compiled by BarclayHedge, versus a 3.26% increase in the S&P 500 Total Return Index. Year to date, the Barclay Hedge Fund Index is up 1.55%, while the S&P has gained 9.94%.
“New all-time highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq coupled with a rally in US Treasuries helped set the stage for another profitable month for hedge funds,” says Sol Waksman, founder and president of BarclayHedge.
Hedge funds have been much maligned post-financial crisis due a perceived lack of performance. Is this criticism fair? And what is the prognosis for currency funds in particular? Galen Stops takes a look.
Earlier this year, Cliff Asness, founder, managing principal and CIO of AQR, published an excellent piece explaining why hedge fund returns should not be compared to 100% long equities returns, as they so often are when people use the S&P 500 as a benchmark.
In the article, Asness was unequivocal in his conclusion that hedge funds not keeping up with equities during a nine-year bull market was completely predictable and is certainly not a reason to worry about the performance of these firms.
This week’s In the FICC of it Colin Lambert and Galen Stops discuss the implications of an FX market where intermediaries are sometimes more profitable than the risk-taking firms that are using their services, and the former – for once – is unsure who to blame for this state of affairs.
Elsewhere, a new report claims that the FX Global Code is already leading to greater transparency and improved behaviour in the FX market, but Lambert isn’t buying this explanation, and Stops recounts comments from a recent interview with the FinTech firm, Cobalt, and asks: is the #blockchain fad over in FX?
The pair also explain that while, yes, hedge fund fees are in general still coming under downwards pressure, if you scratch beneath the surface there is evidence that investors are still willing to pay for alpha, they’ve just become savvier about analysing exactly what this constitutes.