In this week’s podcast P&L’s editor Galen Stops is in ebullient mood as trend followers return to profitability and he is quick to let P&L’s managing editor Colin Lambert – who predicted the death of trend following last year you may recall – know this fact. As well the expected bluster and refusal to change […]
Tag: Fx Volumes
Data from CME Group, Integral Development and Refinitiv, which reports a new high in average daily volume (ADV), confirms the picture established by three other platforms earlier this week of a rebound in March FX volumes.
CME Group says its FX futures and options franchise handled 1,042,000 contracts per day in March, which Profit & Loss estimates to be just over $103 billion in notional volume. This is a 36% increase on activity in February, but is 7% down year-on-year, it is also CME’s busiest month in FX since September 2018.
The three primary FX venues to report average daily volume (ADV) data have reinforced data from a second group that activity in the market was low in February.
Refinitv says it handled $87 billion in spot ADV in February, down 8.4% from January and down 23% from February 2018, while CME Group says both its futures and EBS businesses saw similar declines.
CME Group reports ADV in futures and options contracts of 762,000, which Profit & Loss estimates to be notional volume of $75.4 billion. This is a 9.2% drop month-on-month but down 30% year-on-year.
In this week’s podcast Colin Lambert and Galen Stops discuss the article penned for Profit & Loss by former FX trader Rohan Ramchandani about his trial and subsequent acquittal for market manipulation. While they generally agree on most points there is, inevitably, areas of disagreement, but that is nothing compared to when they move on (thanks to a quiet news week) to how they ranked each other’s predictions for 2018. The results are available on the website, but why did Stops given Lambert a 6/10 for a bitcoin prediction that was actually correct? And why did Lambert return the compliment given Stops just a 4/10 for his own crypto prediction? All will be revealed in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast, along with exactly which one of them scored the most points with their predictions.
Although EBS volumes rose month-on-month, average daily volume data for CME Group weakened in January from the year before.
CME’s FX futures and options product set had ADV of 838,000 contracts per day, which Profit & Loss estimates represents $83 billion per day, a 23.5% fall from January 2018. This is also a 15.3% drop from December’s estimate of $98 billion per day in notional value.
Meanwhile, EBS, which is now owned by CME, reports spot FX volume of $87.1 billion in January, 14% higher than December, but 17% down on a year-on-year basis. This also represents the worst January for the platform since it started reporting ADV in January 2007.
Scepticism abounds in this week’s In the FICC of It podcast as Colin Lambert and Galen Stops take a look at the latest bank to unveil a digital markets strategy – including all your favourite buzzwords. While Stops believes this is the latest move in what will be a growing trend, our podcasters also wonder whether it’s not really just a rebranding exercise?
They then move into more traditional areas and discuss JP Morgan’s survey on FX market conditions, and while they agree with a lot of the findings, there are one or two areas that raise an eyebrow, not least around internalisation and AI.
AI-generated trading and liquidity are also the forefront as they move on to share their thoughts around the flash crash in Jardine Matheson stock last week in Singapore, including asking the question, what does it mean for market maker programmes and certain order types?
The discussion then moves on to look at the latest FX turnover surveys from the world’s FX committees, with particular attention on three interesting/puzzling (delete as appropriate) elements of the UK report surrounding RMB, NDFs and voice brokers.
The podcast ends on with Lambert praising “the optimism of youth” after Stops highlights what he thinks could be a very important line at the end of the latest document detailing an FX-related fine in the US – in other words, the cynic in him won the day!
EBS Markets has reported average daily turnover (ADV) of $88.7 billion in spot FX products in October, a 3% increase on September and a 10% increase year-on-year. The firm, the name of which will be reverting to EBS following the completion of its takeover by CME Group, has now reported three consecutive monthly increases, following a sharp drop in July – at $88.7 billion turnover is slightly below the average for the first nine months of the year of $93.2 billion.
The first batch of FX platforms to report data indicate October saw a modest uptick in activity from September, although CME Group saw average daily volume (ADV) fall from an outstanding previous month.
The stand-out results come from FXSpotStream, which has reported another peak in activity at $35.9 billion per day. Not only does this represent a 12.5% increase from the previous record in September and a huge 80.1% increase year-on-year, it also means that FXSS is recording ADV very close to CboeFX, formerly HotspotFX.
In this week’s podcast Galen Stops reports from Stockholm on his observations from last week’s Profit & Loss conference in that city, and his interruption by abseiling window cleaners gives Colin Lambert the opportunity to tell his favourite window cleaning story.
On more pertinent topics, they discuss the obvious discord between Sweden’s central bank and local economists and Lambert gives his thoughts on the start of the Cartel trial – stressing the differences between this and the impending appeal of Mark Johnson.
Technology is also in our podcasters cross hairs as they look at blunt instruments to manage market risk and Lambert asks the philosophical questions, ‘Is the market always lagging technology and is this a good thing?’ and ‘at what stage do market participants revert to making the tech work for them rather than have the tech dictate their modus operandi?’
There’s also a quick skip through the latest from the crypto world and Lambert also feels obliged to call out one company for its chaotic start to live under a new moniker, and another for good “spin” around its volume numbers.
In this week’s In the FICC of It from Profit & Loss Colin Lambert lifts the veil of secrecy around how this podcast is created and Galen Stops talks about democratising financial markets. They also engage on the latest FX volume surveys and ask ‘are they accurate?’ as well as talk about the impact of regulation on non-bank market makers. They also seek to explode the myth that people are leaving the banking industry in droves and briefly touch upon what Colin Lambert calls ‘the madness of regulation’.