All eyes are now on the 2020 presidential election – the words every day from every cable network and, from time to time, maybe the question should be raised, why? First, back to headquarters for late breaking virus news, like the CBS’ 60 Minutes interview with Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell Sunday night. He said […]
Today marks the conclusion of an acrimonious US Presidential race, with two candidates promising very different approaches to handling the US economy. As a result, analysts have been furiously mapping out the potential impacts of either result.
If Clinton wins:
Analysts at ING predict that in the case of a Clinton win USD will retrace its pre-election losses and re-couple with Federal Reserve expectations.
“Latest breakout of wage growth from post-crisis range means a Clinton win should see markets (fully) price in a Dec Fed rate hike,” they note.
TraderMade’s chief technical analyst, Steve Jarvis, has put out some interesting research looking at USD trading patterns around past presidential elections to see if there is any indication of what to expect in the upcoming one.
Using a USD trade weighted index chart for his analysis rather than specific FX rates, Jarvis looked at how the USD moved during the two months leading up to the previous seven US presidential elections and the two months after.
Going back to 1988, Jarvis highlights who was elected, their defeated opponent, and includes the percentage change for the USD index for the two months before and after the election, as well as the net change over the four-month period.