US July Personal Income Ticks Up, PCE Growth Slows

Personal income ticked up in July after two declines, reflecting a further increase in wages and salaries and small gains in proprietors’ income and rental income. At the same time, consumer spending increased in each of the last three months, though at a progressively slower rate. Consumption is running well above the second quarter average, […]
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BoE’s Bailey: Bank Underestimated its Fire Power

The Bank of England (BoE) underestimated the tools at its disposal in the event of a Covid-sized crisis and sees an ample supply of financial assets should the economy require further quantitative easing. “It looks from today’s vantage point that we were too cautious about our remaining firepower pre-Covid,” said BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, addressing […]
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Powell: Fed will be Flexible with Average Inflation Targeting

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday the Fed will be “flexible” in pursuing a new “average inflation targeting” regime and not use any set “mathematical formula”. Powell, elaborating on what he called a “robust” new monetary policy strategy framework adopted earlier by the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, also noted the new policy […]
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US Q2 GDP Revised Up to -31.7%

Second quarter GDP was revised up due to upward adjustments to all its components. Even with the small improvement, though, the second quarter reading remains the largest quarterly decline since the Great Depression. As a result, analysts will look past this data and toward the third quarter’s partial recovery. July data have been generally positive, […]
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US August Confidence Falls Further as Concerns Grow

The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 84.8 in August from a downward revised 91.7 reading in July. The Conference Board noted that concerns about both employment and business conditions were heightened in the month. Analysts had expected the August index to rise slightly to 93.0 from the originally reported […]
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In the FICC of It

This week’s podcast kicks off with Colin Lambert discussing some of the feedback he received over his comments in the week’s column over the re-papering of trades post the SNB debacle in 2015. He does not, of course, miss the opportunity to drive home his argument that algos should have mandatory price limits, along the […]
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US Data Preview: Stimulus Gridlock, COVID, Cuts into Confidence

The inability to pass new stimulus measures in the face of rising COVID-19 cases likely had a dampening effect on US consumer confidence in August, even as interest rates have hit rock-bottom, gasoline prices are low and with the US stock markets to a large extent having eclipsed their pre-COVID highs. When the University of […]
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US Existing Home Sales Now in “Booming Phase”

US existing home sales surged to a 14-year high in July on record low mortgage rates and an increased desire for single-family homes. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said that the housing sector has moved passed the recovery phase from the exceptionally soft spring and has moved into a “booming phase.” Data […]
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US Initial Claims; Philly Fed Index, Disappoint

The future of the enhanced US jobless claims programme remains uncertain as talks between the Administration and Congress have gone silent, but new filings turned higher in the most recent week. At the same time, this week’s manufacturing conditions data have suggested a slower pace of expansion – and that’s in states where COVID cases […]
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Fed’s Kaplan for “Restraint” in Doing More Monetary Stimulus

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan says the Fed is “quite a ways” from considering raising interest rates, but advocated “restraint” in doing more to stimulate the economy. Although inflation has long run below the Fed’s 2% target, Kaplan said he is “cognisant” of the possibility that inflation could accelerate in coming years. He […]
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