US Employment Recovery Continues

The US August employment report showed continued payrolls improvement, though the size of those gains continues to slow and likely reflects the return of laid-off workers rather than new job creation. Likewise, the unemployment rate fell sharply in the month to 8.4% but remains more than twice the size of the pre-COVID rate of 3.5% […]
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US Initial Claims Fall on Technical Factors

US Initial claims fell by 130,000 in the August 29 week to a level of 881,000, well below the 958,000 level expected and the lowest since the pandemic began, however, the decline needs to be taken with a grain of salt due to technical issues. The Labor Department shifted to an additive seasonal factor from […]
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Fed’s Williams: New Framework Strengthens Fed Hand

The Fed’s new policy framework targeting average inflation over time puts the central bank in a stronger position to meet its employment and inflation goals, New York Fed President John Williams said Wednesday. “The new framework statement directly and effectively addresses the problems caused by a low neutral rate and persistently low inflation,” Williams said […]
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US Manufacturing Conditions Improve Further in August

The August ISM index showed US manufacturing sector activity expanded further due to extraordinarily strong demand, but the sector is still laying off workers and some sectors have not fully recovered from the COVID slowdown. The headline PMI index rose to 56.0 from 54.2 in July, above expectations for a smaller increase to 54.7 and […]
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Data Preview: August Payrolls, Hurricane Laura Top of Mind

The impact of Hurricane Laura, which ripped through the Gulf Region on Thursday and is carving its way up the middle of the US as we speak, will be felt in the weekly initial claims and rig count data next week and could also affect retail sales and other data released later in the month. […]
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US July Personal Income Ticks Up, PCE Growth Slows

Personal income ticked up in July after two declines, reflecting a further increase in wages and salaries and small gains in proprietors’ income and rental income. At the same time, consumer spending increased in each of the last three months, though at a progressively slower rate. Consumption is running well above the second quarter average, […]
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BoE’s Bailey: Bank Underestimated its Fire Power

The Bank of England (BoE) underestimated the tools at its disposal in the event of a Covid-sized crisis and sees an ample supply of financial assets should the economy require further quantitative easing. “It looks from today’s vantage point that we were too cautious about our remaining firepower pre-Covid,” said BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, addressing […]
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Powell: Fed will be Flexible with Average Inflation Targeting

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday the Fed will be “flexible” in pursuing a new “average inflation targeting” regime and not use any set “mathematical formula”. Powell, elaborating on what he called a “robust” new monetary policy strategy framework adopted earlier by the Fed’s policymaking Federal Open Market Committee, also noted the new policy […]
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US Q2 GDP Revised Up to -31.7%

Second quarter GDP was revised up due to upward adjustments to all its components. Even with the small improvement, though, the second quarter reading remains the largest quarterly decline since the Great Depression. As a result, analysts will look past this data and toward the third quarter’s partial recovery. July data have been generally positive, […]
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US August Confidence Falls Further as Concerns Grow

The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index fell to a reading of 84.8 in August from a downward revised 91.7 reading in July. The Conference Board noted that concerns about both employment and business conditions were heightened in the month. Analysts had expected the August index to rise slightly to 93.0 from the originally reported […]
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