US Core CPI Sees Largest Drop Ever

US Consumer prices fell as expected in April, with a plunge in energy prices the key factor due to severely reduced demand for gasoline as consumers stayed off the roads, the Labor Department reported. That was not the entire story, however, as core prices posted their largest monthly decline in history due to severely reduced […]
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WHW: Markets Happy, President Optimistic

The week ended with once again everything that involves the coronavirus falling neatly into place: the stock markets end a stellar string of positive trading days, the president said we don’t even need a vaccine and at least 45 states have some re-openings underway despite the obvious risks. And why not? Because Friday’s jobs report […]
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Eyes Turn to Friday’s US May Data

The mid-month consumption, production and price reports for April released next week will be extremely weak, and as a result will likely be shrugged off by markets that are already numb from all the bad news. Instead, attention should be focused on next Friday’s release of the May Empire State manufacturing reading and the Michigan […]
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US April Payrolls Plunge 20.5mln, Unemployment at 14.7%

The April employment report Friday represented the full effect of the COVID-19 shutdown, with payrolls posting the largest decline on record and the unemployment rate rising to the highest level in the series back to 1948. While employment conditions will not drastically improve until the crisis is over, it is possible that the federal government’s […]
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US Initial Claims Slips Further; 33.5mln Since Mid-March

One day before the April employment report release, data released on Thursday showcased the damage the national shutdown continues to have on labour market conditions. Initial claims fell by 677,000 to 3.169 million in the May 2 week, above the 3.041 million level expected. The state breakdowns suggest that backlogs are finally being worked down […]
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US Treasury to Lift Auction Sizes

The US Treasury plans to raise the sizes of all its nominal securities auctions to meet the pressing fiscal need of the COVID-19 crisis, their quarterly refunding statement released today showed. On Monday, Treasury announced that it expects to borrow $3 trillion in the current quarter, much larger than any single quarter in history, to […]
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Fed Officials Look for Economic Recovery this Year

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida Tuesday said recovery from the economic shutdown “can commence in the second half”, while St Louis Fed President James Bullard said he sees the fourth quarter as when the virus can be put “behind us”. Both Fed policymakers stressed that there are many unknowns about the pandemic and that […]
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‘Plenty of Protein’ in the (Hobbled) Food Chain

Kroger, with 2,700 stores, says some of them will have purchase limits on ground beef and pork, just as many other grocery chains have been imposing for weeks. It’s the end of the week and maybe you’ve run out of things to worry about. We can help. There is “plenty of protein” in the food […]
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Historic 20 Million Decline in US April Payrolls Expected

Many of the March and April US data releases to this point have been worse than even the most pessimistic expectations. With that rosy thought in mind, markets and analysts will prepare for an extremely disappointing April employment report next Friday. The March employment report’s survey week fell before the shutdown, pushing most of the […]
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US April Manufacturing ISM Contracts Sharply

The April ISM index Friday showed US manufacturing sector activity contracted sharply, confirming the disappointing regional and Markit data that preceded it. Conditions are unlikely to improve until businesses are given the green light to reopen fully. The headline PMI index fell to 41.5 from 49.1 in March, above expectations for a decline to 35.0 […]
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