US Initial Claims Slow; Trade Gap Widens

The US initial claims data came in above expectations Thursday, but still posted a ninth straight weekly decline that suggests the backlog of claims continues to be worked down. However, after a sharp dip in the previous week, the level of continuing claims partially rebounded in the most recent data. The Labor Department reported Thursday […]
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SIFMA Survey: ’20 GDP -5.5%; ’21 +4.7%

A survey of 26 chief economists of global and regional financial institutions Tuesday by industry trade group, SIFMA, saw US fourth quarter to fourth quarter GDP falling 5.5% this year and rebounding strongly next year with a 4.7% gain. The survey, taken through May 28, also found no expectation for the Federal Reserve to purposely […]
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US Manufacturing Contraction Slowed in May

The May ISM index Monday showed US manufacturing sector activity contracted further, but at a slower pace, in line with the regional and Markit data. Survey respondents in the ISM report noted while COVID-19 continues to weigh heavily on business activity, there were improvements seen in May due to some states reopening. As more states […]
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After 20 Million Jobs Drop, What’s Next?

The US April data were, in a word, horrible. There was no silver lining, except that it was, hopefully, the worst we will see and that some relative recovery began over the last few weeks. The May business conditions data already released continued their downward trend, but the pace of contraction was, in the main, […]
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April Income Lifted by Stimulus, But No Place to Spend

Personal income surged in April on the large infusion of government stimulus payments. The only problem was that there were fewer places to spend it. Personal income rose by 10.5% in April, well above the 6.0% decline expected that did not consider the inclusion of the transfer payments. Current transfer receipts rose by $3.0 trillion […]
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US initial Claims Slow, Durable Goods Plunge

The US data released earlier Thursday offered few surprises, with the level of initial claims continuing to slide, durable goods orders down sharply in April and first-quarter GDP slightly worse than previously reported. However, a dip in continuing claims suggests that some displaced workers returned to their jobs in mid-May, a positive sign. Initial claims […]
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RBC Launches FX Trade Recommendations Service

RBC says it has executed its first FX trades with clients via AMOS, a new daily FX trade recommendation service aimed at hedge funds and real money clients who have an active FX mandate. Subscribed clients receive daily FX trade recommendations ahead of execution, replicating the performance of RBC’s FX positioning based trading strategy dollar […]
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US May Confidence Stops Slide; New Homes Up

The Conference Board’s US consumer confidence index rose slightly to a reading of 86.6 in May from a downward revised 85.7 reading in April, stopping the slide at two months, but leaving the index well below the recent peak in February. Analysts had expected the May index to rise to 88.3 from the originally reported […]
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Fed’s Clarida: Haven’t Changed Mind vs Negative Rates

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida Thursday said he has not changed his mind, that there’s no upside to purposely move to negative rates. Speaking in a webinar sponsored by the New York Association for Business Economics, Clarida also underlined the points made Wednesday and previously by Fed Chair Jay Powell, that the path forward […]
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US May Lease Additional Crude Oil Storage

The Trump administration is pleased with initial results of its actions to secure crude oil for the national stockpile while easing storage pressures on the struggling oil companies, and might conduct similar operations in the near future, Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said Thursday. Speaking during a virtual meeting of the Secretary of Energy Advisory Board, […]
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