US Industrial Production Data Suggest Recovery Slowing

Industrial production posted another gain in August, continuing the string of gains since state reopenings began. However, the pace of growth slowed considerably, evidence that the recovery is running out of steam. Industrial production rose by only 0.4%, well below the 1.2% increase expected, with declines in both utilities and mining production offsetting another manufacturing […]
Read More »

Is It Too Early to Care About 2023?

The upcoming week’s key events are concentrated into the middle of the week, with Wednesday’s FOMC meeting the highlight. While it is doubtful that the meeting will produce anything earth-shattering, it should confirm the shift in attention toward improving the employment situation and supporting the economic recovery rather than worrying about inflation bubbling up. As […]
Read More »

FOMC Preps for New Monetary Framework Era

There was very little chance the Federal Reserve was going to raise interest rates anytime soon but, just to make sure, the Fed’s rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee gave itself a dual justification for holding rates down indefinitely with the new monetary policy framework it announced on August 27. Not only did the FOMC give […]
Read More »

ECB’s Lane: Baseline Forecasts Based on COVID Jab by End-2021

The most recent ECB economic forecasts assume that a vaccine to combat Covid-19 virus could be available by the end of next year, according to the central bank’s chief economist, Philip Lane, on Friday. The “baseline” estimates assume that “maybe a vaccine will be found by the middle of next year and rolled out by […]
Read More »

US August CPI Rise 0.4% on Solid Core Reading

The August consumer price data were stronger than expected, but still rose at a slower pace than in recent months. Headline CPI rose by 0.4% in August based on data released by the Labor Department Friday morning. Core prices were also up 0.4%. Both readings were above expectations but reflect a slowdown from the 0.6% […]
Read More »

US August PPI Up; Food, Energy Down

US business prices rose by 0.3% in August, as expected, reflecting gains in trade services and the core components, offset by declines in food and energy prices. Even with the monthly gains, the Federal Reserve’s shift away from inflation concerns remains well founded. Price levels have barely moved from a year ago. Food prices were […]
Read More »

Buy Side Using Tech to Extend Reach: Greenwich

Despite fears that electronic trading will eliminate jobs on buy side trading desks, recent investments in technology have not come at the expense of traders, according to a new report by Greenwich Associates. Rather, buy side institutions are using enhanced, integrated technology platforms to expand the reach of their human traders. The average number of […]
Read More »

Is Inflation Now a Tree Falling in the Forest?

The highlight of next week, not counting a Monday holiday of course, will be the August readings of business and consumer inflation at the end of the week – indicators that were closely watched before the COVID crisis. But now, thanks to much more pressing issues this year, inflation was put on the back burner. […]
Read More »

US Employment Recovery Continues

The US August employment report showed continued payrolls improvement, though the size of those gains continues to slow and likely reflects the return of laid-off workers rather than new job creation. Likewise, the unemployment rate fell sharply in the month to 8.4% but remains more than twice the size of the pre-COVID rate of 3.5% […]
Read More »

US Initial Claims Fall on Technical Factors

US Initial claims fell by 130,000 in the August 29 week to a level of 881,000, well below the 958,000 level expected and the lowest since the pandemic began, however, the decline needs to be taken with a grain of salt due to technical issues. The Labor Department shifted to an additive seasonal factor from […]
Read More »