Julie Ros

US Initial Jobless Claims Remain High

The level of initial jobless claims fell modestly in the April 4 week, but the current week’s total lifted the number of new claims filed over the last three weeks to 16.780 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. The level of initial claims fell by 261,000 to a still very high 6.606 million in the […]

Fed Details Main St, Other Lending Facilities

The following is the Federal Reserve announcement of details of its new Main Street lending facilities and other programs, released Thursday morning: The Federal Reserve on Thursday took additional actions to provide up to $2.3 trillion in loans to support the economy. This funding will assist households and employers of all sizes and bolster the […]

EM Exchange Rates, Bonds Amid Pandemic

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today released a BIS Bulletin entitled “Emerging Market Economy Exchange Rates and Local Currency Bond Markets Amid the Covid-19 Pandemic” written by staff members Boris Hofmann, Ilhyock Shim and Hyun Song Shin. Among the key findings in the report, the authors say portfolio investors face amplified losses as local […]

US Feb JOLTS Points to Pre-Covid Slowdown

Openings, Hiring Slow Even Before Virus; Layoffs to Surge in March The US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly JOLTS report, released Tuesday morning, showed that job openings and hiring conditions slowed in February and layoffs rose, even before the full Covid impact. Job openings fell to 6.882 million in February from 7.012 million in January, […]

BIS: Macro Spillover Effects of Pandemic

The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) released a BIS Bulletin today written by staff members Emanuel Kohlscheen, Benoît Mojon and Daniel Rees, which predicts a total GDP shortfall that could be as much as twice that implied by the direct initial effects of confinement in the face of the global coronavirus pandemic. Given the historical […]

NY Fed Reports Sharp Decline in Consumer Expectations

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Centre for Microeconomic Data released the March 2020 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows a considerable deterioration in households’ expectations regarding their labour market and financial situation across all age, education, and income groups. The Fed reports the perceived probability of losing one’s job reached 18.5%, its highest level […]

BoC: Businesses Already Saw Declines in March

The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) quarterly survey of executives saw business sentiment had already begun weakening before COVID-19 worries intensified in Canada, especially in energy-producing regions. Some businesses polled again in mid-March reported a sharp decline in business activity, and many others were expecting it. The Bank’s spring Business Outlook Survey composite indicator fell to […]

White House Watch: Bracing for the Worst Yet

President Trump and his experts Saturday warned the nation that next week and the week after are going to see virus death tolls that will far eclipse anything seen so far, as the increasing number of hotspots climb the steepening curve toward their peaks. Three weeks ago the warnings delivered Saturday would have been remarkable […]

Amid the Confusion, Virus Keeps Spreading

The two most important realities Friday remained the incrementally greater death tolls every day and the fundamental wisdom of distancing, while other less important considerations included a new, somewhat half-hearted recommendation for everyone to wear masks. There was also new confusion about a number of topics and the beginning of government forgivable loans to small […]

US March Payrolls Drop, But it’s Only the Beginning

Unemployment Rate Rises to 4.4% from 3.5%, Some See It Rising to 30% The March employment report was much weaker than expected, but only reflected the very start of the economic shutdowns. The March 14 survey week fell before the bulk of the government-mandated business shutdowns. As a result, much of the impact will shifted […]