Galen Stops is back on duty for this week’s In the FICC of It podcast and he and Colin Lambert have a lot to get their teeth into. Starting with a response to Lambert’s question from episode 37 as to why the Cartel were in a chatroom anyway, our podcasters discuss the throwing out of the case against former Barclays’ FX head Robert Bogucki in the US. Staying with that bank, they then discuss a website set up by Barclays’ former head of automated trading David Fotheringhame that is “a public defence of last look”. Listeners will be glad to hear that Lambert doesn’t bang on for too long on one of his favourite subjects, preferring instead to move the conversation onto exchange in FX, with the question, “will scale ultimately win the day?”
Day: 11 March 2019
Over the years the most powerful criticism aimed at e-commerce and its potential impact on markets has not been about volatility, or market behaviour generally, it is its lack of flexibility – why else, for example, has the FX swaps market not become more automated in recent years? This is a genuinely intriguing question and whilst in the past it was hard to see how it could happen – thanks to resistance on bank and broker side – now I am definitely picking up a different vibe.
A new research note from CME Group looks at whether FX options skews can be used to predict where certain currencies will move relative to the US dollar.Written by Erik Norland, executive director and senior economist at CME, the research opens by explaining that options markets typically exhibit a skew, but that in different asset classes this skew can be in different directions.For example, Norland points out that out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on equity index futures are usually more expensive than OTM call options because investors fear a sudden decline in stock prices more than a sudden rise. However, the reverse is generally true for options on agriculture products because food buyers are more concerned with a sudden increase in the price of crops rather than a decline.