Mispriced Risk in Australia
Before last month’s RBA rate cut to 2.25%, divergence in views between domestic and international market analysts had become apparent. Symptomatic of the divide were contrasting portrayals of the drop in Australian yields by the Sydney Morning Herald (7 January) as indicative of risk-haven demand for Australian dollar assets, versus opinions from international analysts (such as UBS, cited by Bloomberg earlier on 3 December), who saw the writing on the the wall last month’s RBA cut to 2.25%. From domestic analysts’ perspective, the RBA’s action was a surprise last month, which led them to downgrade their expectations after-the-fact. But once downgraded, the RBA trumped expectations in the opposite direction today.