The Q3 edition of Profit & Loss will feature an in-depth special report on FX prime services, looking at the significant changes that have occurred in this segment of the market and how these will impact trading firms in the future.
But we want to hear from you about your expectations regarding the future of FX prime services, which is why we're asking you to fill out this 1-2 min multiple choice survey: https://www.surveymonkey.co.uk/r/PrimeServices
All survey responses will remain anonymous, but should you choose to include your email address at the bottom of the survey you will receive a free PDF of the special report when it is published in September.
Given how the EUR/CHF cross collapsed immediately following the removal of the pair’s artificial floor by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in January 2015, it would seem an obvious answer to the question, “was the event expected” would be “no”. The cross fell from its SNB-imposed floor at 1.2000, hitting 0.7000 at one stage before the “official” low was set at 0.85, finally settling around 1.05.
A new paper published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), however, studies events in the FX market leading up to the removal of the EUR/CHF floor in January 2015, and while it is not conclusive, it does find evidence that some option markets were predicted the break lower in the cross.
Speaking at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) Market Risk Advisory Committee (MRAC) meeting today in Washington, a range of market participants weighed in on the expected impact of Britain’s exit from the European Union
Eileen Kiely, director at BlackRock, said that markets are currently in a period of low volatility – both implied and realised across asset classes globally – and that she does not expect Brexit to disrupt this trend. This is in part because Kiely believes that markets are currently pricing the risks associated with Brexit appropriately.
The value of sterling slid today as Bank of England (BoE) Governor, Mark Carney, indicated that there would be no immediate adjustment of monetary policy by the central bank.
In a speech delivered at Mansion House in London, Carney declared that “now is not yet the time to begin” monetary adjustment, ruling out the possibility of an interest rate hike.
GBP/USD promptly dropped from 1.2753 at 8am BST to 1.2631 just before 3pm BST in response to Carney’s comments. “Since the prospect of Brexit emerged, financial markets, notably sterling, have marked down the UK’s economic prospects.
One week after releasing analysis of activity around the UK election, and as the first anniversary of the vote approaches, CLS has released analysis of Cable spot volumes during Brexit-related events.
Unsurprisingly the analysis highlights how volumes spike during unexpected events. The data indicate that the Brexit vote, the Cable flash crash of October 7, 2016 and this month’s UK election were the three busiest days for Cable in the last 12 months – closely followed by another surprise event, the calling of the snap election on April 18.
CLS and Thomson Reuters (TR) have released data charting the spike in GBP trading following the UK’s recent general election.The exit poll at 22:00 produced a surprise outcome with the Conservative party expected to win just 314 seats, far less
The exit poll at 22:00 produced a surprise outcome with the Conservative party expected to win just 314 seats, far less than previous polls and 12 seats short of an overall majority.
The data from CLS shows that this resulted in an elevated trading activity in GBP/USD at 22:00. As results were being announced during the night, the unexpected exit poll was becoming more credible and GBP/USD volumes remained much higher than the 2016 average.
Polish FX executives say that geopolitics is the biggest issue facing its country and currency this year, according to the results of a Bloomberg FX survey issued today.
In the survey 56% of Warsaw FX professionals said that the single biggest challenge facing corporations in the country will be navigating geopolitical challenges, while one-quarter say it will be hedging against market volatility.
According 56% of those who responded to the survey, the most significant issue affecting the zloty in 2017 will be political developments between Poland and Europe. Other survey respondents thought that the zloty could be most affected by geopolitics or moves by central banks in the US and Europe.
FX markets have settled with sterling some 1.5% lower after the shock exit poll indicated a hung parliament and analysts are saying that further losses could be possible.
“It’s not looking good for Theresa May, who appears to have lost the Conservative’s majority in Parliament,” writes Kathleen Brooks, director at City Index. She adds, however, that in 2015 the exit poll also suggested that the Tories wouldn’t win an overall majority, but they won with a slim majority, “so there is a chance that Theresa May could still hang onto Number 10”.
Sterling has dropped sharply in early Asian trading as exit polls from the UK election indicates the ruling Conservative government will win the most seats but will fall short of a majority.
An exit poll for BBC News, ITN News and Sky News indicates the Conservatives wining 314 seats, Labour 266, Scottish National Party 34, Liberal Democrats 14 and local parties (including the Greens) winning 22.
Cable has fallen from 1.2950 to 1.2710, EUR/GBP rose strongly to 0.8820 from 0.8657 and GBP/JPY fell from 142.50 to 139.75. Cable has bounced to 1.2760 and EUR/GBP is back below 0.8800,
The outcome of the UK General Election has become less certain as the campaign has progressed, posing questions around the impact of an unexpected result. Some investors are speculating about how this will affect the pound and, of course, Brexit negotiations. Michael Gowland, global head of treasury at Earthport FX, provides an outline of some of the possible scenarios.
Scenario 1: Conservative win
The market has largely priced in this outcome and therefore, we expect this result to have a neutral to slightly negative impact on sterling going forward. The Conservative pledge of a “balanced budget by 2025”, which roughly translates as tighter fiscal policy, may have a medium-term impact on sterling, although the current upward trend we see on technical charts should not be discounted – and at this stage, we would refrain from being overly negative.